Are overweight children likely to become overweight adults?

Obesity in adolescence often progresses to severe obesity later on

A prospective cohort trial followed 8834 nonobese and obese individuals, ages 12 to 21, for 13 years to assess risk of adult obesity.² Patients were drawn from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, which is a representative sample of United States schools from 1994 to 1995 with respect to region, urbanicity, school size, school type, and ethnicity.

Researchers observed a total of 703 incident cases of severe obesity in adulthood, indicating a total incidence rate of 7.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.4%-8.5%). Obese adolescents were significantly more likely to develop severe obesity than nonobese adolescents who were normal weight or overweight (hazard ratio [HR]=16; 95% CI, 12-21).

A significant proportion of obese adolescents became severely obese by their early 30s, with an incidence of 37% in men (95% CI, 31%-44%) and 51% in women (95% CI, 45%-58%). Black women had the highest incidence at 52% (95% CI, 41%-64%). Fewer than 5% of patients (across sex and race) who were normal weight in adolescence became severely obese in adulthood.