WASHINGTON — The United States will be short 159,300 physicians by 2025. And while increasing medical school enrollment will help, there's no way that 159,000 more physicians can be minted in 15 years.
That's according to Edward Salsberg, director of the Center for Health Workforce Studies at the University of Albany, School of Public Health. The stark figure comes from a 2008 report from the center.
“We need to look at how we design the delivery system. We need to promote interdisciplinary teams and integrated delivery systems,” Mr. Salsberg said at a physician workforce research conference, sponsored by the Association of American Medical Colleges.
About 26,000 students enter medical school each year, said Mr. Salsberg. But according to the American Medical Association, in 2007, about 13,000 currently active physicians reached age 63 years, and presumably at least began to think about retirement.
Indeed, many of these will likely forestall retirement for at least a few years, especially given the current economy. But in a few years, “we're going to find ourselves with literally tens of thousands of physicians who [are] waiting to retire,” Mr. Salsberg predicted.
Add those to the 24,000 active physicians set to reach age 63 in 2017, plus the increased demand that health reform and the aging population both promise, and a true shortage emerges—not only in primary care, but also in general surgery, psychology, cardiology, and other specialties.
“Is it a question of reforming the health care system, redesigning the health care system, or adding more physicians and other health care professionals? And it's really not a question of either or, it's a question of how do we do both simultaneously.”
AAMC-supported legislation has been introduced in the Senate to address the situation—the Resident Physician Shortage Reduction Act of 2009 (S. 973), sponsored by Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.). If passed, it would increase the number of Medicare-supported training positions for medical residents by 15%, or by about 15,000 slots. At press time, the bill had been referred to the Finance Committee.