PHILADELPHIA – The analyses offer the possibility of focusing intensified medical management of early-stage CKD on those patients who could potentially receive the most benefit.
The Klinrisk model predicts the risk of an adult with early-stage CKD developing either a 40% or greater drop in estimated glomerular filtration rate or kidney failure. It calculates risk based on 20 lab-measured variables that include serum creatinine, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, and other values taken from routinely ordered tests such as complete blood cell counts, chemistry panels, comprehensive metabolic panels, and urinalysis.
Mitchel L. Zoler/MDedge News
Dr. Navdeep Tangri
In the most recent and largest external validation study using data from 4.6 million American adults enrolled in commercial and Medicare insurance plans, the results showed Klinrisk correctly predicted CKD progression in 80%-83% of individuals over 2 years and in 78%-83% of individuals over 5 years, depending on the insurance provider, Navdeep Tangri, MD, PhD, reported at the annual meeting of the American Society of Nephrology. When urinalysis data were available, the model correctly predicted CKD progression in 81%-87% of individuals over 2 years and in 80%-87% of individuals over 5 years. These results follow prior reports of several other successful validations of Klinrisk.
‘Ready to implement’
“The Klinrisk model is ready to implement by any payer, health system, or clinic where the needed lab data are available,” said Dr. Tangri, a nephrologist and professor at the University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, and founder of Klinrisk Inc., the company developing and commercializing the Klinrisk assessment tool.
For the time being, Dr. Tangri sees Klinrisk as a population health device that can allow insurers and health systems to track management quality and quality improvement and to target patients who stand to benefit most from relatively expensive resources. This includes prescriptions for finerenone (Kerendia, Bayer) for people who also have type 2 diabetes, and agents from the class of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors such as dapagliflozin (Farxiga, AstraZeneca) and empagliflozin (Jardiance, Boehringer Ingelheim and Lilly).
He has also begun discussions with the Food and Drug Administration about the data the agency will need to consider Klinrisk for potential approval as a new medical device, perhaps in 2025. That’s how he envisions getting a Klinrisk assessment into the hands of caregivers that they could use with individual patients to create an appropriate treatment plan.
Results from his new analysis showed that “all the kidney disease action is in the 10%-20% of people with the highest risk on Klinrisk, while not much happens in those in the bottom half,” Dr. Tangri said during his presentation.
“We’re trying to find the patients who get the largest [absolute] benefit from intensified treatment,” he added in an interview. “Klinrisk finds people with high-risk kidney disease early on, when kidney function is still normal or near normal. High-risk patients are often completely unrecognized. Risk-based management” that identifies the early-stage CKD patients who would benefit most from treatment with an SGLT2 inhibitor, finerenone, and other foundational treatments to slow CKD progression “is better than the free-for-all that occurs today.”