Clinicians can predict a childhood cancer survivor’s risk for subsequent ischemic heart disease and stroke when they are provided with certain information, according to a study involving >20,000 individuals. Investigators looked for the development of ischemic heart disease and stroke through age 50 in participants from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (n=13,060). Siblings (n=4,023) provided the baseline population risk, and findings were validated in 2 other cohorts (n=3,204). Among the results:

• In the study cohort, ischemic heart disease occurred in 265 patients; 295 experienced a stroke.
• Risk scores achieved both area under the curve and concordance statistics of 0.70 for ischemic heart disease.
• For stroke, these statistics were 0.63 and 0.66, respectively.
• Validation cohort statistics for ischemic heart disease were 0.66 to 0.67, respectively.
• For stroke they were 0.68 to 0.72, respectively.
• Cumulative incidence at age 50 in low-risk groups was <5%.
• It was 20% in high-risk groups.