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Kidney Disease Progression: How to Calculate Risk

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Q)When I diagnose patients with minor kidney disease, they often ask if they will require dialysis. I know it is unlikely, but I wish I could give them a better answer. Can you help me?

The diagnosis of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is understandably concerning for many patients. Being able to estimate CKD progression helps patients gain a better understanding of their condition while allowing clinicians to develop more personalized care plans. Tangri and colleagues developed a model that can be used to predict risk for kidney failure requiring dialysis or transplantation in patients with stage III to V CKD. This model has been validated in multiple diverse populations in North America and worldwide.1

The Kidney Failure Risk Equation (found at www.kidneyfailurerisk.com) uses four variables—age, gender, glomerular filtration rate (GFR), and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR)—to assess two- and five-year risk for kidney failure.1,2 For example

  • A 63-year-old woman with a GFR of 45 mL/min and an ACR of 30 mg/g has a 0.4% two-year risk and a 1.3% five-year risk for progression to kidney failure requiring dialysis or transplant.1
  • Alternatively, a 55-year-old man with a GFR of 38 mL/min and an ACR of 150 mg/g has a 2.9% two-year risk and a 9% five-year risk for progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD).1

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