CV risk prediction tools: Imperfect, Yes, but are they serviceable?

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Applied Evidence

CV risk prediction tools: Imperfect, Yes, but are they serviceable?

J Fam Pract. 2018 September;67(9):E3-E8

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References

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The resulting CVD risk calculator incorporates 4 risk equations: 1 each for African-American and non-Hispanic white males and females.¹¹ Of note, PCR equations are typically used to estimate 10-year CVD risk, but they can be modified to estimate risk over any period. The associated Guideline on the Assessment of Cardiovascular Risk recommends statin therapy for primary prevention of CVD in patients with a predicted 10-year risk ≥7.5% and consideration of statin therapy for patients with a predicted 10-year risk between 5% and 7.5%.¹²

In late 2016, the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommended low- to moderate-dosage statin therapy in adults 40 to 75 years of age without a history of CVD but with at least 1 CVD risk factor (dyslipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, or smoking), and a PCR-calculated 10-year CVD risk of ≥10%. For people with a PCR-calculated risk of 7.5% to 10%, the USPSTF recommended that clinicians “selectively offer” low- to moderate-dosage statin therapy, noting a smaller likelihood of benefit and uncertainty in an individual’s risk prediction.¹³

Pooled cohort risk equations have predictive validity

Estimates are that nearly 50% of US adults and as many as 65% of European adults would be candidates for statin therapy if, using PCR equations, the 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines were broadly applied.¹⁴ Since PCR equations were released, multiple groups have attempted to evaluate the predictive validity of the algorithm in various populations, with mixed findings.

The true impact of systematic CVD risk assessment alone for healthy people has yet to be demonstrated, in terms of hard clinical outcomes.

Data from the 1999-2010 NHANES—the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey—were used to calculate estimated CVD risk for patients free of atherosclerotic CVD at baseline. Risk prediction using PCR equations was compared to true all-cause and CVD mortality using the National Center for Health Statistics National Death Index. In this large, US adult population without CVD at baseline, PCR-estimated CVD risk was significantly associated with all-cause and CVD-specific mortality risk.¹⁵

In a community-based primary prevention cohort, 39% of participants were found statin-eligible—ie, they had an estimated 10-year CVD risk ≥7.5%—by ACC/AHA guidelines, compared with 14% found statin-eligible by the guidelines of the National Cholesterol Education Program’s 2004 updated “Third Report of the Expert Panel on Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Cholesterol in Adults (ATP III).” Despite the larger percentage, participants who were statin-eligible by ACC/AHA guidelines had an increased hazard ratio for incident CVD compared with those who were statin-eligible by ATP III; investigators concluded that ACC/AHA guidelines using PCR equations were associated with greater accuracy and efficiency in identifying increased risk of incident CVD.¹⁶

Continue to: Pooled cohort risk equations might overestimate CVD risk