LONG BEACH, CALIF. – If present trends continue, U.S. surgeons will be performing 179,000 more incontinence and prolapse surgeries annually in 2050 than they are today.
The projected increase results primarily from an aging population, Dr. Jennifer Wu said at the meeting.
Stress incontinence surgeries are predicted to increase from about 211,000 in 2010 to 310,000 in 2050, and surgeries for pelvic floor prolapse are predicted to increase from 166,000 this year to 246,000 in 2050.
Dr. Wu of Duke University, Durham, N.C., and her colleagues used three sources of data in making their forecast. The U.S. Census Bureau provided estimates of the female population in various age groups between 2006 and 2050. Data on the number of women undergoing these surgeries, broken down by age group, came from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample of 2007 and the National Survey of Ambulatory Surgery of 2006.
The largest number of surgeries were in women aged 40-59 years. During the survey years, 48,050 women in that age group had inpatient surgery, and 53,790 had outpatient surgery for incontinence. Similarly, 49,490 women had inpatient surgery and 20,700 had outpatient surgery for prolapse.
“One out of 10 women will undergo surgery for incontinence or prolapse in her lifetime,” Dr. Wu said. The estimates would provide health officials and policy makers with important information about the future disease burden and economic impact of these procedures.
Dr. Wu stated that she had no relevant financial disclosures.